The U.S. Economy - An Alphabetic, Easy-to-Understand, Light-Hearted Look at What is Happening

 


America - a bad image in many parts of the world. The solution to the situation in Iraq hopefully soon-to-be-so will help restore our image


Bush very low authorization rates limit his ability to get the law he wants. The President has a mission for the next 20 months to build a positive legacy. Good news? Tax reduction of america:


Consumer Confidence - 

remains reasonably high this year, despite the economic "winds" of previous Fed consolidation and high energy costs. Confidence is still somewhat weak, however, given the concern for terrorism ... especially on American soil ... and soft housing prices especially in coastal markets.


Dollar  -

 depreciating sharply in recent months, mainly compared to the euro. In my view, a more modest approach is indeed welcome as it will help reduce our trade and land inequality

Power - U.S. earns a record 60% of our daily fat intake. Worried? About 90% of the world's oil is in the hands of people who do not like it


Federal Reserve -

 alongside financing for almost 11 months now, following the strengthening of seventeen 0.25% movement between June '04 and June '06. Our best guess is that the Fed will be able to slow down policy a bit in the last quarter of 2007


Global Economy -

 strong growth remains the norm, despite high energy prices. Another year of real growth (adjusted inflation) over 4.0% that is happening now will be the strongest five-year period since the early 1970s.


Health Care - 

one of the most important challenges in the coming years as the United States faces rising costs and a rapidly growing population. Tort conversion is mandatory. Various health care assessments at the public level may indicate promise


Inflation - 

a growing concern over the past 18 months, coupled with higher energy and commodity prices. In my opinion, less concern on the road is given to greater competition, the behavior of aggressive consumers in getting a "better deal," stronger profits in production, and a cost-effective online environment.


Jobs - 

U.S. added about 7.4 million new jobs over the past 40 months, though the pace has slowed by '07. A return to the availability of the strongest employees in the coming years is offered


Knowledge - 

and thinking ability - is the key to individual success in a developing economy. Further education and training are now a lifelong pursuit for many


Leadership -

 look at it. The democratic leaders in the ANC seem to be more interested in attacking and humiliating the President than in doing anything. If this continues, their rule may be temporary. Remember the small salary increase promised by Pelosi? Still postponed


Consolidation and Fundraising Work -

 many agreements were made to keep companies secretive ... and as a result they were not very relieved of the expensive regulatory burden of Sarbanes-Oxley. Congressic reform is much needed. Also that the U.S. continues to lose its position as an international financial institution in London, Singapore, etc.


National Debt - 

our estimated total debt of $ 9.0 trillion is 67% of the annual production output of the U.S. economy. (GDP). Japan's national debt is 150% of its size. Oops!


Oil prices - 

about $ 62 per barrel in recent days. A buyer for me wants to see fuel prices below $ 3.00 per liter. An economist for me would like to see oil prices around $ 100 per barrel for 3-4 years. Such a price can provide a powerful motivation for gaining integrity in terms of conservation, renewable energy, better use of coal, nuclear, shale oil, etc.


Politics -

 child behavior and bullying on both sides of the road in Washington is ridiculous ... and very common. Is cooperation really that difficult?


Quarterly Economic Growth - 

It  is expected to intensify as '07 grows. The real annual growth rate of 1.3% for the first quarter (adjusted for inflation) could be revised to lower on May 31. The current quarterly growth appears to be close to the real annual average of 2.0%. We see real 3.0% growth at the end of '07 and '08


Retirement - 

The term will take on a whole new meaning for decades to come as many people "close the gap" (working two or three days a week) between working full-time and moving to a full-time pension. Most Baby Boomers of retirement age would prefer to keep one foot in the workplace for a long time to come


Stocks - 

our "as aggressive predictions as" all other stock prices continue to be outdone by Dow.


Taxes -

 Democrats will talk over the next two years about the need for Bush tax cuts. However, that is unlikely to happen. Why? The flow of tax money in Washington is truly amazing ... and "if it isn't broken, don't fix it." The FY2007 budget deficit could be as low as $ 150 billion


Unemployment - 

The rate reached 4.6% last year and 4.5% so far in '07. The rate is close to 4.7% -4.8% over the annual balance ... and yes ... it is still below the '70s,' 80s, and '90s averages


Visitors (foreign) - 

Who are likely to arrive in large numbers in the coming months, especially those from Europe and Asia .... and spending a lot of money! Be nice, be kind, and invite them back. Wall Street - just to say ... I always do well in stocks


Xports - 

U.S. exports of goods and services in the first quarter of '07 increased by 9.8% from the same period last year, 17 consecutive quarters growth in exports. Import (including oil) is always very high


Teens -

 my parents "grew up" with Pearl Harbor ... my peers on the Kennedy massacre and in Vietnam. For millions of Generations X and Y, September 11 will be permanently focused on their knowledge


Now entered the NBA "Final Four" after sending Houston and Golden State. Can they win it all year? Like a small train ... I think we can ... I think we can.

With

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